Solar payback calculator — priced against your actual tariff

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The 30% federal credit is gone. Section 25D was terminated on December 31, 2025, so a home solar system bought in 2026 receives no federal tax credit — not a reduced one. Leased and power-purchase-agreement systems can still access the business credit (48E) through 2027, claimed by the owner rather than by you. Figures below include no federal credit and no state or utility incentive; add those yourself.

Solar by state

A 7 kW system at $3.00/W, priced on every current tariff in the state. Shortest payback shown.

Alabama From 27 years 1,367 kWh per kW a year Arizona From 10 years 1,755 kWh per kW a year Arkansas From 22 years 1,413 kWh per kW a year California From 3 years 1,677 kWh per kW a year Colorado From 11 years 1,595 kWh per kW a year Connecticut From 7 years 1,252 kWh per kW a year Delaware From 15 years 1,364 kWh per kW a year District of Columbia From 12 years 1,411 kWh per kW a year Florida From 12 years 1,544 kWh per kW a year Georgia From 13 years 1,402 kWh per kW a year Hawaii From 5 years 1,622 kWh per kW a year Idaho From 12 years 1,456 kWh per kW a year Illinois From 5 years 1,308 kWh per kW a year Indiana From 14 years 1,335 kWh per kW a year Iowa From 14 years 1,370 kWh per kW a year Kansas From 17 years 1,526 kWh per kW a year Kentucky From 10 years 1,355 kWh per kW a year Louisiana From 15 years 1,479 kWh per kW a year Maine From 8 years 1,319 kWh per kW a year Maryland From 9 years 1,392 kWh per kW a year Massachusetts From 5 years 1,302 kWh per kW a year Michigan From 10 years 1,291 kWh per kW a year Minnesota From 13 years 1,333 kWh per kW a year Mississippi From 22 years 1,414 kWh per kW a year Missouri From 13 years 1,433 kWh per kW a year Montana From 17 years 1,344 kWh per kW a year Nebraska From 21 years 1,423 kWh per kW a year Nevada From 12 years 1,753 kWh per kW a year New Hampshire From 10 years 1,258 kWh per kW a year New Jersey From 8 years 1,305 kWh per kW a year New Mexico From 10 years 1,779 kWh per kW a year New York From 5 years 1,291 kWh per kW a year North Carolina From 8 years 1,446 kWh per kW a year North Dakota From 14 years 1,294 kWh per kW a year Ohio From 9 years 1,310 kWh per kW a year Oklahoma From 20 years 1,527 kWh per kW a year Oregon From 14 years 1,128 kWh per kW a year Pennsylvania From 10 years 1,359 kWh per kW a year Rhode Island From 10 years 1,294 kWh per kW a year South Carolina From 12 years 1,446 kWh per kW a year South Dakota From 13 years 1,422 kWh per kW a year Tennessee From 29 years 1,338 kWh per kW a year Texas From 16 years 1,421 kWh per kW a year Utah From 16 years 1,484 kWh per kW a year Vermont From 16 years 1,222 kWh per kW a year Virginia From 8 years 1,427 kWh per kW a year Washington From 13 years 1,088 kWh per kW a year West Virginia From 19 years 1,232 kWh per kW a year Wisconsin From 11 years 1,334 kWh per kW a year Wyoming From 16 years 1,533 kWh per kW a year

What this does and does not model

Production comes from NREL's PVWatts for a representative location in your state, for a south-facing roof-mounted array at 20° tilt with standard losses. Solar resource varies within a state — west Texas is far sunnier than Houston — so treat this as a state-level figure, not a survey of your roof. Shading, orientation and roof pitch all move it.

Timing is modeled from solar geometry and scaled to match the PVWatts monthly totals, in local clock time. That matters: on a time-of-use tariff, production that lands at 1pm is worth much less than production at 6pm, and getting the hour wrong changes the answer.

Exports are the largest uncertainty. Where the tariff files a sell rate we use it. Where it does not, but the utility reports residential net metering to the EIA, we show a range spanning no export credit to full retail netting — because which applies depends on state rules we do not have. A wide range means the net metering policy matters more to your payback than the tariff does.

Not included: state and utility incentives, SRECs, panel degradation (typically 0.5%/year), future rate increases (which shorten payback), maintenance, inverter replacement, or the effect on your property's value. Battery storage is not modeled at all and changes the economics substantially where export credit is poor.