NerdyWatts

Solar payback, priced against your actual tariff

Most payback calculators take your bill, assume solar wipes out a share of it, and divide. That gets time-of-use tariffs badly wrong, because solar produces at midday and households use power in the evening. This one nets production against consumption hour by hour, then prices what is left on your real tariff.

The 30% federal credit is gone. Section 25D was terminated on December 31, 2025, so a home solar system bought in 2026 receives no federal tax credit — not a reduced one. Leased and power-purchase-agreement systems can still access the business credit (48E) through 2027, claimed by the owner rather than by you. Figures below include no federal credit and no state or utility incentive; add those yourself.
A typical US residential system is 6–8 kW.
Before any incentive. Get quotes; this varies a lot by market.

Solar by state

Alabama payback on current tariffs Arizona payback on current tariffs Arkansas payback on current tariffs California payback on current tariffs Colorado payback on current tariffs Connecticut payback on current tariffs Delaware payback on current tariffs District of Columbia payback on current tariffs Florida payback on current tariffs Georgia payback on current tariffs Hawaii payback on current tariffs Idaho payback on current tariffs Iowa payback on current tariffs Maine payback on current tariffs Washington payback on current tariffs

What this does and does not model

Production comes from NREL's PVWatts for a representative location in your state, for a south-facing roof-mounted array at 20° tilt with standard losses. Solar resource varies within a state — west Texas is far sunnier than Houston — so treat this as a state-level figure, not a survey of your roof. Shading, orientation and roof pitch all move it.

Timing is modeled from solar geometry and scaled to match the PVWatts monthly totals, in local clock time. That matters: on a time-of-use tariff, production that lands at 1pm is worth much less than production at 6pm, and getting the hour wrong changes the answer.

Exports are the largest uncertainty. Where the tariff files a sell rate we use it. Where it does not, but the utility reports residential net metering to the EIA, we show a range spanning no export credit to full retail netting — because which applies depends on state rules we do not have. A wide range means the net metering policy matters more to your payback than the tariff does.

Not included: state and utility incentives, SRECs, panel degradation (typically 0.5%/year), future rate increases (which shorten payback), maintenance, inverter replacement, or the effect on your property's value. Battery storage is not modeled at all and changes the economics substantially where export credit is poor.