Is solar worth it in Minnesota?

A 7.0 kW rooftop system near Minneapolis produces about 9,330 kWh a year. Priced against the 16 residential tariffs currently on file in Minnesota, payback runs from 13 years on the best of them to 55 on the worst.

No federal tax credit applies to a purchased system. Section 25D ended on December 31, 2025. Leases and power-purchase agreements can still reach the business credit (48E) through 2027, but it is claimed by the system's owner, not by you. Every figure on this page assumes no federal credit and no state or utility incentive.
1333kWh per kW per year
#25of 36 states measured
54%used on site, not exported
$21,000system cost at $3.00/W

Why the tariff matters more than the panels

Two households in Minnesota with identical roofs and identical systems can see paybacks 13 and 55 years apart, purely because they are on different tariffs. Solar produces at midday; households consume in the evening. Only 54% of what these panels make is used as it is made — the rest is exported, and what an exported kWh earns is set by the tariff and by state net metering rules, not by the hardware.

That is why the figures here are computed hour by hour against each real tariff rather than by taking a bill and assuming solar removes a share of it. How this is modeled →

Payback by tariff in Minnesota

7.0 kW system at $3.00/W, household using 1000 kWh a month, no incentives. A range means the export credit is not filed with the tariff and the outcome depends on net metering rules — 16 of 16 tariffs here belong to a utility that reports residential net metering.

UtilityTariffStructure Annual savingPayback
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential Electric Vehicle Service (A08) Time-of-use $871–$1,594 13–24y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential TOD Overhead Standard (A02) Time-of-use $856–$1,564 13–25y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential Service - Overhead Standard (A01) Time-of-use $830–$1,514 14–25y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential Service - Underground Standard (A03) Time-of-use $830–$1,514 14–25y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential TOD Underground Standard (A04) Time-of-use $817–$1,493 14–26y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential TOD Underground Electric Space Heating (A04) Time-of-use $760–$1,371 15–28y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential TOD Overhead Electric Space Heating (A02) Time-of-use $760–$1,371 15–28y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential Service - Underground Electric Space Heating (A03) Time-of-use $726–$1,305 16–29y
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Residential Service - Overhead Electric Space Heating (A01) Time-of-use $726–$1,305 16–29y
Minnesota Power Inc Residential-Seasonal Flat $604–$1,110 19–35y
Minnesota Power Inc Residential-General Flat $579–$1,063 20–36y
Minnesota Power Inc Residential - Space Heating Flat $579–$1,063 20–36y
Rochester Public Utilities Residential - Time of Use Time-of-use $479–$975 22–44y
Minnesota Power Inc Residential Dual Fuel Interruptible Electric Service Flat $435–$799 26–48y
Minnesota Power Inc Residential Electric Vehicle Service Time-of-use $380–$723 29–55y

Price it for your own usage and system size →

What would change this

Your roof. Production is modeled for Minneapolis on a south-facing array at 20° tilt. Shading, orientation and pitch all move it, and solar resource varies within Minnesota itself.

Your usage pattern. A household at home during the day self-consumes more and exports less, which shortens payback wherever export credit is poor.

Rising rates. These figures hold today's prices flat. Electricity prices have been rising, and every rise shortens payback — so treat these as a conservative bound.

State and local incentives. Not included here, and in some states they are worth more than the federal credit was. Check your state energy office before deciding.