Is solar worth it in California?

A 7.0 kW rooftop system near Los Angeles produces about 11,740 kWh a year. Priced against the 98 residential tariffs currently on file in California, payback runs from 3 years on the best of them to 24 on the worst.

No federal tax credit applies to a purchased system. Section 25D ended on December 31, 2025. Leases and power-purchase agreements can still reach the business credit (48E) through 2027, but it is claimed by the system's owner, not by you. Every figure on this page assumes no federal credit and no state or utility incentive.
1677kWh per kW per year
#2of 16 states measured
45%used on site, not exported
$21,000system cost at $3.00/W

Why the tariff matters more than the panels

Two households in California with identical roofs and identical systems can see paybacks 3 and 24 years apart, purely because they are on different tariffs. Solar produces at midday; households consume in the evening. Only 45% of what these panels make is used as it is made — the rest is exported, and what an exported kWh earns is set by the tariff and by state net metering rules, not by the hardware.

That is why the figures here are computed hour by hour against each real tariff rather than by taking a bill and assuming solar removes a share of it. How this is modeled →

Payback by tariff in California

7.0 kW system at $3.00/W, household using 1000 kWh a month, no incentives. A range means the export credit is not filed with the tariff and the outcome depends on net metering rules — 98 of 98 tariffs here belong to a utility that reports residential net metering.

UtilityTariffStructure Annual savingPayback
Southern California Edison Co Time-of-use Tiered Domestic (NEM 2.0): TOU-D-A-CPP Time-of-use $3,011–$8,357 3–7y
Southern California Edison Co TOU-D-4-9PM-CPP Time-of-use $2,640–$7,952 3–8y
Southern California Edison Co Time-of-use Tiered Domestic (NEM 2.0): TOU-D-B-CPP Time-of-use $2,486–$7,260 3–8y
Southern California Edison Co TOU-D-5-8PM-CPP Time-of-use $2,171–$6,904 3–10y
Southern California Edison Co TOU-D-PRIME-CPP Time-of-use $2,039–$6,903 3–10y
Southern California Edison Co TOU-D-4-9PM-CPP Time-of-use $2,124–$6,424 3–10y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co EV-TOU Time-of-use $2,419–$5,894 4–9y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR - Coastal Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,734–$5,639 4–8y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR - Inland Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,734–$5,599 4–8y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR-LI - Coastal Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,703–$5,570 4–8y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR-LI - Inland Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,703–$5,530 4–8y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR - Desert Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,673–$5,448 4–8y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR - Mountain Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,712–$5,440 4–8y
Southern California Edison Co TOU-D-PRIME-CPP Time-of-use $1,653–$5,402 4–13y
San Diego Gas & Electric Co DR-LI - Desert Baseline Region Time-of-use + tiered $2,642–$5,379 4–8y

Price it for your own usage and system size →

What would change this

Your roof. Production is modeled for Los Angeles on a south-facing array at 20° tilt. Shading, orientation and pitch all move it, and solar resource varies within California itself.

Your usage pattern. A household at home during the day self-consumes more and exports less, which shortens payback wherever export credit is poor.

Rising rates. These figures hold today's prices flat. Electricity prices have been rising, and every rise shortens payback — so treat these as a conservative bound.

State and local incentives. Not included here, and in some states they are worth more than the federal credit was. Check your state energy office before deciding.