Is solar worth it in Arizona?
A 7.0 kW rooftop system near Phoenix produces about 12,286 kWh a year. Priced against the 54 residential tariffs currently on file in Arizona, payback runs from 10 years on the best of them to 32 on the worst.
Why the tariff matters more than the panels
Two households in Arizona with identical roofs and identical systems can see paybacks 10 and 32 years apart, purely because they are on different tariffs. Solar produces at midday; households consume in the evening. Only 44% of what these panels make is used as it is made — the rest is exported, and what an exported kWh earns is set by the tariff and by state net metering rules, not by the hardware.
That is why the figures here are computed hour by hour against each real tariff rather than by taking a bill and assuming solar removes a share of it. How this is modeled →
Payback by tariff in Arizona
7.0 kW system at $3.00/W, household using 1000 kWh a month, no incentives. A range means the export credit is not filed with the tariff and the outcome depends on net metering rules — 54 of 54 tariffs here belong to a utility that reports residential net metering.
| Utility | Tariff | Structure | Annual saving | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Service Co | Fixed Energy Charge Plan (R-1) Large Tier 3 | Flat | $991–$2,208 | 10–21y |
| Arizona Public Service Co | Time-of-Use 4pm-7pm Weekdays (R-TOU-E) | Time-of-use | $854–$2,100 | 10–25y |
| Arizona Public Service Co | Residential Electric Vehicle Time-of-Use (R-EV) | Time-of-use | $888–$2,080 | 10–24y |
| Arizona Public Service Co | Fixed Energy Charge Plan (R-1) Medium Tier 2 | Flat | $917–$2,044 | 10–23y |
| Arizona Public Service Co | Residential Service TOU Time Advantage 7PM-Noon (ET-2) [Frozen] | Time-of-use | $993–$1,937 | 11–21y |
| Electrical Dist No3 Pinal Cnty | RATE NO. 01 PPM RESIDENTIAL PRE-PAYMENT SERVICE | Flat | $720–$1,604 | 13–29y |
| Salt River Project | Daytime Saver Pilot | Time-of-use | $444–$1,477 | 14–47y |
| Trico Electric Cooperative Inc | Residential Service RS1 | Tiered | $674–$1,474 | 14–31y |
| Salt River Project | E-23 Tier 1 BASIC PRICE PLAN FOR RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-23 Tier 2 BASIC PRICE PLAN FOR RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-23 Tier 3 BASIC PRICE PLAN FOR RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-24 Tier 1 M-POWER PRICE PLAN FOR PRE-PAY RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-24 Tier 2 M-POWER PRICE PLAN FOR PRE-PAY RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-24 Tier 3 M-POWER PRICE PLAN FOR PRE-PAY RESIDENTIAL SERVICE | Time-of-use | $642–$1,419 | 15–33y |
| Salt River Project | E-22 Tier 3 SRP EZ-3 Price Plan - PRICE PLAN FOR RESIDENTIAL SUPER PEAK TIME-OF-USE SERVICE | Time-of-use | $627–$1,409 | 15–34y |
Price it for your own usage and system size →
What would change this
Your roof. Production is modeled for Phoenix on a south-facing array at 20° tilt. Shading, orientation and pitch all move it, and solar resource varies within Arizona itself.
Your usage pattern. A household at home during the day self-consumes more and exports less, which shortens payback wherever export credit is poor.
Rising rates. These figures hold today's prices flat. Electricity prices have been rising, and every rise shortens payback — so treat these as a conservative bound.
State and local incentives. Not included here, and in some states they are worth more than the federal credit was. Check your state energy office before deciding.